Astral Radiance Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)
28.00% of Astral Radiance booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Astral Radiance ships 20 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0140 (≈1 in 71). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Astral Radiance Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 20 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 71. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Astral Radiance
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irida #147 | $0.61 | 1 in 71 |
| 2 | Rampardos #77 | $0.54 | 1 in 71 |
| 3 | Hisuian Typhlosion #52 | $0.43 | 1 in 71 |
| 4 | Regigigas #130 | $0.39 | 1 in 71 |
| 5 | Togekiss #57 | $0.38 | 1 in 71 |
| 6 | Diancie #68 | $0.38 | 1 in 71 |
| 7 | Absol #97 | $0.38 | 1 in 71 |
| 8 | Hisuian Samurott #100 | $0.35 | 1 in 71 |
| 9 | Bastiodon #110 | $0.34 | 1 in 71 |
| 10 | Mesprit #66 | $0.33 | 1 in 71 |
| 11 | Gallade #62 | $0.32 | 1 in 71 |
| 12 | Wyrdeer #69 | $0.32 | 1 in 71 |
| 13 | Hisuian Decidueye #82 | $0.30 | 1 in 71 |
| 14 | Magnezone #107 | $0.30 | 1 in 71 |
| 15 | Kleavor #86 | $0.29 | 1 in 71 |
| 16 | Hisuian Sneasler #93 | $0.28 | 1 in 71 |
| 17 | Hisuian Lilligant #16 | $0.27 | 1 in 71 |
| 18 | Keldeo #45 | $0.27 | 1 in 71 |
| 19 | Miltank #126 | $0.26 | 1 in 71 |
| 20 | Adaman #135 | $0.26 | 1 in 71 |
How the 28.00% rate is computed
Every Astral Radiance booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 9 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 20 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 20 = 0.0140 = 1 in 71.
This is the same math PackRip's live Astral Radiance simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.
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