Sun & Moon Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)
28.00% of Sun & Moon booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Sun & Moon ships 16 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0175 (≈1 in 57). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Sun & Moon Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 16 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 57. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Sun & Moon
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragonite #96 | $3.99 | 1 in 57 |
| 2 | Arcanine #22 | $2.39 | 1 in 57 |
| 3 | Alolan Muk #58 | $1.09 | 1 in 57 |
| 4 | Poliwrath #32 | $0.61 | 1 in 57 |
| 5 | Ribombee #93 | $0.54 | 1 in 57 |
| 6 | Sharpedo #82 | $0.51 | 1 in 57 |
| 7 | Alolan Dugtrio #87 | $0.50 | 1 in 57 |
| 8 | Shiinotic #17 | $0.49 | 1 in 57 |
| 9 | Crobat #56 | $0.45 | 1 in 57 |
| 10 | Vikavolt #52 | $0.43 | 1 in 57 |
| 11 | Oranguru #113 | $0.43 | 1 in 57 |
| 12 | Toxapex #63 | $0.42 | 1 in 57 |
| 13 | Kangaskhan #99 | $0.41 | 1 in 57 |
| 14 | Krookodile #85 | $0.40 | 1 in 57 |
| 15 | Tsareena #20 | $0.38 | 1 in 57 |
| 16 | Gigalith #71 | $0.37 | 1 in 57 |
How the 28.00% rate is computed
Every Sun & Moon booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 6 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 16 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 16 = 0.0175 = 1 in 57.
This is the same math PackRip's live Sun & Moon simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Sun & Moon packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Sun & Moon binder completion calculator
- Sun & Moon per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Sun & Moon cards