Evolutions BREAK Pull Rate — 11.10% per pack (1 in 9)
11.10% of Evolutions booster packs contain a BREAK card — roughly 1 in 9 packs. Evolutions ships 4 BREAK cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific BREAK is 0.0277 (≈1 in 36). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Evolutions BREAK pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 11.10% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 4 BREAK cards = 1 in 36. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
BREAK cards in Evolutions
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ninetales BREAK #16 | $4.49 | 1 in 36 |
| 2 | Machamp BREAK #60 | $3.76 | 1 in 36 |
| 3 | Nidoking BREAK #46 | $3.58 | 1 in 36 |
| 4 | Starmie BREAK #32 | $2.20 | 1 in 36 |
How the 11.10% rate is computed
Every Evolutions booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, BREAK, and the era's other chase rarities. The BREAK tier captures 11.10% of those rare-slot draws (= 11.10 packs out of every 100). Within the BREAK tier, all 4 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 11.10% ÷ 4 = 0.0277 = 1 in 36.
This is the same math PackRip's live Evolutions simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 11.10% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit BREAK
BREAK pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.111000. The expected number of packs until your first BREAK hit is 10; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 26 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit BREAK with probability 98.6% — so the average box yields just over 4.0 BREAK pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Evolutions packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Evolutions binder completion calculator
- Evolutions per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Evolutions cards
- Every BREAK card across all 140 booster sets