What is the Rare Holo pull rate in Fates Collide?

28.00% per booster pack — roughly 1 in 4 Fates Collide packs contains a Rare Holo card. Fates Collide ships 5 Rare Holo cards in its pool, so per-card odds are ≈1 in 18. The rate is PackRip's own published constant for that tier, identical in the simulator and in this dataset. It is not derived from real print-run data, which has never been published.

How many Fates Collide packs to pull a Rare Holo?

On average 4 packs to hit your first Rare Holo — that's the expected value of a geometric distribution with parameter p=0.280000. At 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. A sealed 36-pack booster box yields a Rare Holo with probability 100.0%.

Which Rare Holo cards are in Fates Collide?

5 Rare Holo cards: Mew, Lucario, Tyranitar, White Kyurem, Delphox. The full list with TCGplayer market prices is in the table on this page. The most valuable by market price is Mew at $16.57.

Fates Collide Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)

Mew — Fates Collide

28.00% of Fates Collide booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Fates Collide ships 5 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0560 (≈1 in 18). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.

Fates Collide Rare Holo pull-rate methodology

How PackRip computes this page
Formula	Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 5 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 18.
Assumptions	One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split.
Data source	Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from `rareSlotRates()`, mirrored from the live pack opener.
Update cadence	Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change.
Limitations	This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences.

Rare Holo cards in Fates Collide

#	Card	TCGplayer market	Per-card odds
1	Mew #29	$16.57	1 in 18
2	Lucario #63	$3.07	1 in 18
3	Tyranitar #56	$0.96	1 in 18
4	White Kyurem #21	$0.52	1 in 18
5	Delphox #13	$0.37	1 in 18

How the 28.00% rate is computed

Every Fates Collide booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 5 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 5 = 0.0560 = 1 in 18.

This is the same math PackRip's live Fates Collide simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.

Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo

Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.

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