Sword & Shield Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)
28.00% of Sword & Shield booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Sword & Shield ships 17 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0165 (≈1 in 61). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Sword & Shield Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 17 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 61. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Sword & Shield
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gengar #85 | $8.53 | 1 in 61 |
| 2 | Toxicroak #124 | $0.59 | 1 in 61 |
| 3 | Marnie #169 | $0.46 | 1 in 61 |
| 4 | Galarian Perrserker #128 | $0.44 | 1 in 61 |
| 5 | Cinderace #35 | $0.42 | 1 in 61 |
| 6 | Inteleon #58 | $0.42 | 1 in 61 |
| 7 | Boltund #75 | $0.41 | 1 in 61 |
| 8 | Frosmoth #64 | $0.38 | 1 in 61 |
| 9 | Boltund #76 | $0.36 | 1 in 61 |
| 10 | Oranguru #148 | $0.35 | 1 in 61 |
| 11 | Cinderace #34 | $0.33 | 1 in 61 |
| 12 | Galarian Obstagoon #119 | $0.33 | 1 in 61 |
| 13 | Copperajah #137 | $0.33 | 1 in 61 |
| 14 | Rhyperior #99 | $0.32 | 1 in 61 |
| 15 | Rillaboom #14 | $0.31 | 1 in 61 |
| 16 | Sandaconda #110 | $0.25 | 1 in 61 |
| 17 | Professor's Research (Professor Magnolia) #178 | $0.20 | 1 in 61 |
How the 28.00% rate is computed
Every Sword & Shield booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 17 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 17 = 0.0165 = 1 in 61.
This is the same math PackRip's live Sword & Shield simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Sword & Shield packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Sword & Shield binder completion calculator
- Sword & Shield per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Sword & Shield cards