What is the Special Illustration Rare pull rate in Twilight Masquerade?

2.80% per booster pack — roughly 1 in 36 Twilight Masquerade packs contains a Special Illustration Rare card. Twilight Masquerade ships 11 Special Illustration Rare cards in its pool, so per-card odds are ≈1 in 393. The rate is PackRip's own published constant for that tier, identical in the simulator and in this dataset. It is not derived from real print-run data, which has never been published.

How many Twilight Masquerade packs to pull a Special Illustration Rare?

On average 36 packs to hit your first Special Illustration Rare — that's the expected value of a geometric distribution with parameter p=0.028000. At 95% confidence you'll have one within 106 packs. A sealed 36-pack booster box yields a Special Illustration Rare with probability 64.0%.

Which Special Illustration Rare cards are in Twilight Masquerade?

11 Special Illustration Rare cards: Greninja ex, Perrin, Carmine, Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex, Lana's Aid, plus 6 more. The full list with TCGplayer market prices is in the table on this page. The most valuable by market price is Greninja ex at $385.46.

Twilight Masquerade Special Illustration Rare Pull Rate — 2.80% per pack (1 in 36)

Greninja ex — Twilight Masquerade

2.80% of Twilight Masquerade booster packs contain a Special Illustration Rare card — roughly 1 in 36 packs. Twilight Masquerade ships 11 Special Illustration Rare cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Special Illustration Rare is 0.0025 (≈1 in 393). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.

Twilight Masquerade Special Illustration Rare pull-rate methodology

How PackRip computes this page
Formula	Tier odds = 2.80% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 11 Special Illustration Rare cards = 1 in 393.
Assumptions	One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split.
Data source	Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from `rareSlotRates()`, mirrored from the live pack opener.
Update cadence	Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change.
Limitations	This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences.

Special Illustration Rare cards in Twilight Masquerade

#	Card	TCGplayer market	Per-card odds
1	Greninja ex #214	$385.46	1 in 393
2	Perrin #220	$183.65	1 in 393
3	Carmine #217	$73.22	1 in 393
4	Bloodmoon Ursaluna ex #216	$46.75	1 in 393
5	Lana's Aid #219	$36.23	1 in 393
6	Kieran #218	$35.32	1 in 393
7	Sinistcha ex #210	$30.14	1 in 393
8	Teal Mask Ogerpon ex #211	$29.31	1 in 393
9	Wellspring Mask Ogerpon ex #213	$17.80	1 in 393
10	Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon ex #215	$15.64	1 in 393
11	Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon ex #212	$11.91	1 in 393

How the 2.80% rate is computed

Every Twilight Masquerade booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 7 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Special Illustration Rare, and the era's other chase rarities. The Special Illustration Rare tier captures 2.80% of those rare-slot draws (= 2.80 packs out of every 100). Within the Special Illustration Rare tier, all 11 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 2.80% ÷ 11 = 0.0025 = 1 in 393.

This is the same math PackRip's live Twilight Masquerade simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 2.80% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.

Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Special Illustration Rare

Special Illustration Rare pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.028000. The expected number of packs until your first Special Illustration Rare hit is 36; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 106 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Special Illustration Rare with probability 64.0% — so the average box yields just over 1.0 Special Illustration Rare pulls.