Arceus Rare Holo Pull Rate — 33.00% per pack (1 in 3)
33.00% of Arceus booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Arceus ships 12 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0275 (≈1 in 36). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Arceus Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 33.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 12 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 36. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Arceus
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charizard #1 | $110.13 | 1 in 36 |
| 2 | Zapdos G #12 | $18.20 | 1 in 36 |
| 3 | Kabutops #4 | $17.26 | 1 in 36 |
| 4 | Salamence #8 | $17.09 | 1 in 36 |
| 5 | Froslass #2 | $8.89 | 1 in 36 |
| 6 | Luxray #5 | $7.82 | 1 in 36 |
| 7 | Tangrowth #10 | $4.46 | 1 in 36 |
| 8 | Swalot #9 | $4.31 | 1 in 36 |
| 9 | Mothim #6 | $3.68 | 1 in 36 |
| 10 | Heatran #3 | $3.30 | 1 in 36 |
| 11 | Toxicroak #11 | $3.10 | 1 in 36 |
| 12 | Probopass #7 | $1.62 | 1 in 36 |
How the 33.00% rate is computed
Every Arceus booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 3 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 33.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 33.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 12 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 33.00% ÷ 12 = 0.0275 = 1 in 36.
This is the same math PackRip's live Arceus simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 33.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.330000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 8 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 11.9 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Arceus packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Arceus binder completion calculator
- Arceus per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Arceus cards