Neo Discovery Rare Holo Pull Rate — 36.00% per pack (1 in 3)
36.00% of Neo Discovery booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Neo Discovery ships 17 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0212 (≈1 in 47). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Neo Discovery Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 36.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 17 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 47. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Neo Discovery
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umbreon #13 | $752.74 | 1 in 47 |
| 2 | Espeon #1 | $365.17 | 1 in 47 |
| 3 | Tyranitar #12 | $145.15 | 1 in 47 |
| 4 | Houndour #5 | $98.40 | 1 in 47 |
| 5 | Kabutops #6 | $89.38 | 1 in 47 |
| 6 | Houndoom #4 | $88.86 | 1 in 47 |
| 7 | Politoed #8 | $81.75 | 1 in 47 |
| 8 | Scizor #10 | $76.39 | 1 in 47 |
| 9 | Smeargle #11 | $59.71 | 1 in 47 |
| 10 | Ursaring #15 | $45.34 | 1 in 47 |
| 11 | Poliwrath #9 | $35.42 | 1 in 47 |
| 12 | Magnemite #7 | $35.24 | 1 in 47 |
| 13 | Wobbuffet #16 | $34.99 | 1 in 47 |
| 14 | Forretress #2 | $32.32 | 1 in 47 |
| 15 | Yanma #17 | $26.36 | 1 in 47 |
| 16 | Unown [A] #14 | $20.81 | 1 in 47 |
| 17 | Hitmontop #3 | $20.76 | 1 in 47 |
How the 36.00% rate is computed
Every Neo Discovery booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 2 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 36.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 36.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 17 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 36.00% ÷ 17 = 0.0212 = 1 in 47.
This is the same math PackRip's live Neo Discovery simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 36.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.360000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 3; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 7 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 13.0 Rare Holo pulls.