Dragon Rare Holo Pull Rate — 28.00% per pack (1 in 4)
28.00% of Dragon booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 4 packs. Dragon ships 12 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0233 (≈1 in 43). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Dragon Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 28.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 12 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 43. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Dragon
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Absol #1 | $153.87 | 1 in 43 |
| 2 | Plusle #8 | $89.63 | 1 in 43 |
| 3 | Minun #7 | $89.14 | 1 in 43 |
| 4 | Salamence #10 | $83.68 | 1 in 43 |
| 5 | Altaria #2 | $56.91 | 1 in 43 |
| 6 | Shedinja #11 | $56.61 | 1 in 43 |
| 7 | Flygon #4 | $54.05 | 1 in 43 |
| 8 | Torkoal #12 | $50.72 | 1 in 43 |
| 9 | Golem #5 | $43.02 | 1 in 43 |
| 10 | Grumpig #6 | $18.14 | 1 in 43 |
| 11 | Roselia #9 | $11.39 | 1 in 43 |
| 12 | Crawdaunt #3 | $8.47 | 1 in 43 |
How the 28.00% rate is computed
Every Dragon booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 4 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 28.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 28.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 12 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 28.00% ÷ 12 = 0.0233 = 1 in 43.
This is the same math PackRip's live Dragon simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 28.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.280000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 10 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 10.1 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Dragon packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Dragon binder completion calculator
- Dragon per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Dragon cards