Aquapolis Rare Holo Pull Rate — 35.00% per pack (1 in 3)
35.00% of Aquapolis booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Aquapolis ships 32 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0109 (≈1 in 91). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Aquapolis Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 35.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 32 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 91. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Aquapolis
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umbreon #H29 | $1252.62 | 1 in 91 |
| 2 | Suicune #H25 | $449.99 | 1 in 91 |
| 3 | Tyranitar #H28 | $425.00 | 1 in 91 |
| 4 | Ninetales #H19 | $283.33 | 1 in 91 |
| 5 | Muk #H17 | $261.66 | 1 in 91 |
| 6 | Houndoom #H11 | $215.00 | 1 in 91 |
| 7 | Scizor #H21 | $186.99 | 1 in 91 |
| 8 | Zapdos #H32 | $186.67 | 1 in 91 |
| 9 | Slowking #H22 | $179.95 | 1 in 91 |
| 10 | Kingdra #H14 | $178.70 | 1 in 91 |
| 11 | Steelix #H23 | $166.33 | 1 in 91 |
| 12 | Exeggutor #H10 | $162.49 | 1 in 91 |
| 13 | Sudowoodo #H24 | $150.00 | 1 in 91 |
| 14 | Togetic #H27 | $150.00 | 1 in 91 |
| 15 | Victreebel #H30 | $149.94 | 1 in 91 |
| 16 | Nidoking #H18 | $125.13 | 1 in 91 |
| 17 | Vileplume #H31 | $123.97 | 1 in 91 |
| 18 | Tentacruel #H26 | $121.13 | 1 in 91 |
| 19 | Hypno #H12 | $106.68 | 1 in 91 |
| 20 | Magneton #H16 | $89.98 | 1 in 91 |
| 21 | Jumpluff #H13 | $89.54 | 1 in 91 |
| 22 | Octillery #H20 | $73.00 | 1 in 91 |
| 23 | Ampharos #H1 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 24 | Lanturn #H15 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 25 | Arcanine #H2 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 26 | Ariados #H3 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 27 | Azumarill #H4 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 28 | Bellossom #H5 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 29 | Blissey #H6 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 30 | Electrode #H7 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 31 | Entei #H8 | — | 1 in 91 |
| 32 | Espeon #H9 | — | 1 in 91 |
How the 35.00% rate is computed
Every Aquapolis booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 3 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 35.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 35.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 32 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 35.00% ÷ 32 = 0.0109 = 1 in 91.
This is the same math PackRip's live Aquapolis simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 35.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.350000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 3; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 7 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 12.6 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Aquapolis packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Aquapolis binder completion calculator
- Aquapolis per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Aquapolis cards