Secret Wonders Rare Holo Pull Rate — 33.00% per pack (1 in 3)
33.00% of Secret Wonders booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Secret Wonders ships 20 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0165 (≈1 in 61). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Secret Wonders Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 33.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 20 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 61. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Secret Wonders
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugia #14 | $220.01 | 1 in 61 |
| 2 | Mew #15 | $207.66 | 1 in 61 |
| 3 | Charizard #3 | $137.72 | 1 in 61 |
| 4 | Blastoise #2 | $107.31 | 1 in 61 |
| 5 | Gardevoir #7 | $64.90 | 1 in 61 |
| 6 | Suicune #19 | $52.67 | 1 in 61 |
| 7 | Venusaur #20 | $48.39 | 1 in 61 |
| 8 | Ho-Oh #10 | $43.32 | 1 in 61 |
| 9 | Ampharos #1 | $41.95 | 1 in 61 |
| 10 | Entei #4 | $40.97 | 1 in 61 |
| 11 | Salamence #18 | $37.47 | 1 in 61 |
| 12 | Raikou #16 | $25.84 | 1 in 61 |
| 13 | Lickilicky #12 | $17.57 | 1 in 61 |
| 14 | Gastrodon East Sea #8 | $14.91 | 1 in 61 |
| 15 | Flygon #5 | $14.87 | 1 in 61 |
| 16 | Gallade #6 | $14.84 | 1 in 61 |
| 17 | Gastrodon West Sea #9 | $12.55 | 1 in 61 |
| 18 | Ludicolo #13 | $9.18 | 1 in 61 |
| 19 | Jumpluff #11 | $8.25 | 1 in 61 |
| 20 | Roserade #17 | $7.58 | 1 in 61 |
How the 33.00% rate is computed
Every Secret Wonders booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 3 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 33.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 33.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 20 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 33.00% ÷ 20 = 0.0165 = 1 in 61.
This is the same math PackRip's live Secret Wonders simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 33.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.330000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 8 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 11.9 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Secret Wonders packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Secret Wonders binder completion calculator
- Secret Wonders per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Secret Wonders cards