Celebrations Rare Holo Pull Rate — 33.00% per pack (1 in 3)
33.00% of Celebrations booster packs contain a Rare Holo card — roughly 1 in 3 packs. Celebrations ships 6 Rare Holo cards in the pool, so the chance of pulling any specific Rare Holo is 0.0550 (≈1 in 18). These percentages come from PackRip's own rate table (the same constants the simulator runs on) — they are a model of the product, not a measurement of it. The Pokemon Company has never published pull rates.
Celebrations Rare Holo pull-rate methodology
| Formula | Tier odds = 33.00% per pack; per-card odds = tier odds ÷ 6 Rare Holo cards = 1 in 18. |
|---|---|
| Assumptions | One independent rare-slot roll per pack; uniform selection within the tier; no pity timers, box mapping, short-print correction, or edition/condition split. |
| Data source | Set checklist and rarity labels from the bundled Pokemon TCG API catalog; tier rates from rareSlotRates(), mirrored from the live pack opener. |
| Update cadence | Regenerated by prerender whenever set metadata, catalog data, or pull-rate constants change. |
| Limitations | This is a theoretical per-pack rate. Real sealed product can show print-run variance, collation quirks, and market-specific edition differences. |
Rare Holo cards in Celebrations
| # | Card | TCGplayer market | Per-card odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mew #25 | $61.33 | 1 in 18 |
| 2 | Pikachu #5 | $4.67 | 1 in 18 |
| 3 | Mew #11 | $3.76 | 1 in 18 |
| 4 | Lunala #15 | $0.30 | 1 in 18 |
| 5 | Solgaleo #21 | $0.30 | 1 in 18 |
| 6 | Professor's Research (Professor Oak) #23 | $0.29 | 1 in 18 |
How the 33.00% rate is computed
Every Celebrations booster pack rolls one rare-slot card (plus uncommons, commons, and energy in fixed slots). The rare slot is itself a weighted random draw across 5 tiers — Rare, Holo Rare, Rare Holo, and the era's other chase rarities. The Rare Holo tier captures 33.00% of those rare-slot draws (= 33.00 packs out of every 100). Within the Rare Holo tier, all 6 cards share the slot uniformly, so per-card odds are 33.00% ÷ 6 = 0.0550 = 1 in 18.
This is the same math PackRip's live Celebrations simulator uses to roll packs — open as many as you want for free, watch the empirical hit rate converge to the theoretical 33.00% over a large enough sample. Source code lives in src/utils/packGenerator.ts and the per-rarity drift is build-time-asserted against the published rates so the simulator and this landing page can never disagree.
Cumulative probability — how many packs to hit Rare Holo
Rare Holo pulls follow a geometric distribution with per-pack rate 0.330000. The expected number of packs until your first Rare Holo hit is 4; at 95% confidence you'll have one within 8 packs. Most experienced openers crack a sealed booster box (36 packs) and hit Rare Holo with probability 100.0% — so the average box yields just over 11.9 Rare Holo pulls.
Related on PackRip
- Open Celebrations packs free — same pull rates, live RNG
- Celebrations binder completion calculator
- Celebrations per-pack expected value
- Top 25 most valuable Celebrations cards